As part of the CECILIA2050 project, three modelling approaches were employed to determine the pathways and implications of the ambitious emission reductions in the European Union, with two of the approaches linking developments in the EU with the rest of the world. This report draws together the key results from each of these broadly co-ordinated modelling exercises, compares and discusses key similarities and differences and draws out implications for the development of a low-carbon economy in the EU up until the year 2050.
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- Policy Briefs
- Conference Reports
- Work Package 1: Taking stock of the current instrument mix
- Work Package 2: Sectoral impacts of the current instrument mix
- Work Package 3: Future-looking scenarios(active tab)
- Work Package 4: Policy pathways to a future instrument mix
- Work Package 5: The international context
- Work Package 6: Towards an ‘optimal’ instrument mix for climate policy
- Related Publications
_Sectoral%20Scenarios%20for%20a%20Low-Carbon%20Europe_cover_0-itok=ih7h-Mcv.png "Drummond (2014)_Sectoral Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Europe")
Discussion of Results from the ETM-UCL Model, EXIOBASE Input-‐Output Model and the GINFORS Model
_Macroeconomic%20routes%20to%202050_cover-itok=1kHLkATy.png "Meyer et al. (2014)_Macroeconomic routes to 2050")
Whether an active climate policy that reaches the 2 degrees warming target for 2100 can be enforced will depend to a large extend on the structure of the policy mix and the economic effects that are induced. This paper evaluates such policies and shows their direct and indirect economic and environmental effects till the year 2050 by applying the global economic environmental model, GINFORS. This model allows for a realistic analysis of policy impacts, as resource use and economic developments are reported in deep sector detail.
read more_Techno-Economic%20Scenarios_cover_0-itok=BwRUEbtZ.PNG "Solano and Drummond (2014)_Techno-Economic Scenarios")
Using the European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL) to Model Energy System Development in the EU
This paper examines the implications of imposing an 80% reduction of EU CO2 emissions on the Union’s energy system by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The study also attempts to project the most cost-effective transformation pathway to achieve this goal using the recently developed European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL), a technology-rich, bottom-up linear optimization model.
read more_Instrument%20building%20blocks%20and%20governance%20scenarios_cover_0-itok=M0wpMi4k.png "Huppes and Huele (2014)_Instrument building blocks and governance scenarios")
Climate policy is at a crossroads, in the EU and more broadly in the world. Diverging tendencies and options indicate different directions for the development of instruments and technologies. Such issues are not just administrative and technical but also link to the governance structure. When considering climate policy instrumentation, we need governance story lines in which to place different scenarios for instrument development.
read more_Scenarios%20for%202050-itok=gGqm_m1M.png "De Koning et al. (2014)_Scenarios for 2050")
Using a four regions trade linked IO-model with high sector detail
For this study, a trade linked global input-output table with environmental extensions has been constructed for the year 2000. The data comes from EXIOBASE, a highly detailed global IO database. The dataset includes 44 trade-linked countries/regions, which have been aggregated into four global regions: the EU; other developed countries; fast developing countries; and a Rest of the World. These regions are treated as internally homogeneous and the sector detail is around 129 sectors per country.
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