Scenarios for international climate policy instruments

Because the measures and policies of third countries can affect the optimality of the EU’s climate policy framework, this report applies a global perspective when considering the direction climate policies might take through 2050. The report primarily incorporates those 11 non-EU countries into the analysis, which are among the biggest economies and largest emitters in the world and whose climate change policies matter most. The climate policy instruments that are considered within this report include not only carbon markets but also other instruments which aim at mitigating climate change. With regard to the latter, the report includes national energy policy instruments, such as quotas for renewable energies and fossil fuel subsidies, and measures to reduce international transport emissions. After a detailed description of the state of play of these different policy instruments, four policy scenarios through 2050 are developed for each type of instrument. The policy scenarios differ with regard to the level of ambition, policy convergence, and international cooperation. The scenarios developed within this report will form the basis for future macro-economic simulations of the CECILIA2050 research project.

Attachment:

Zelljadt (2014)_Scenarios for international climate policy instruments.pdf

Citation:

Zelljadt, Elizabeth, 2014. Scenarios for international climate policy instruments. WP5 Deliverable 5.1. Berlin, Ecologic Institute.

Funding:

European Commission

Authors:

Elizabeth Zelljadt, Ecologic Institute

Year of publication:

2014

Number of pages:

1	Introduction	6
1.1	About this report	6
1.2	Deviation from description of work	6
2	Scenario creation	8
2.1	Countries involved	9
2.2	Instruments analysed	9
3.2.1	Carbon pricing	10
3.2.2	Energy policies at the national level	10
3.3.3	Climate measures in global sectors 11	11
2.3	Conceptual methodology	11
2.3.1	Criteria	12
2.3.2	Scenario “landscape”	14
3	The Scenarios	17
3.1	Countries and Instruments: current state of play	19
3.1.1	Carbon pricing state of play	21
	Carbon markets	22
	Carbon taxes	23
	New market mechanisms	25
3.1.2	Domestic energy policies state of play	26
	Renewable energy quotas	26
	Fossil fuel subsidies	28
3.1.3	GHGs from global transport state of play	29
3.2	Evolution through 2050 by instrument type for each scenario	30
3.2.1	Carbon pricing	30
3.2.1.1	Carbon pricing Status quo	30
3.2.1.2	Carbon pricing global deal path	31
3.2.1.3	Carbon pricing middle-of-the-road	32
3.2.1.4	Carbon pricing non-global-deal path	33
3.2.2	Domestic policies	34
3.2.2.1	Domestic policies status quo	34
3.2.2.2	Domestic policies global deal	35
3.2.2.3	Domestic policies middle-of-the-road	35
3.2.2.4	Domestic policies non-global-deal	35
3.2.3	Global sectors	36
3.2.3.1	Global sectors status quo	36
3.2.3.2	Global sectors global deal scenario	37
3.2.3.3	Global sectors middle-of-the-road	37
3.2.3.4	Global sectors non-global-deal	38
4	Conclusion	39
5	References	41