Publications

A case study of the European steel industry

This study develops and applies an analytical framework for examining the determinants of carbon leakage and competitiveness. The study has a long-term perspective and focuses on the European steel industry. For the case study, a CGE model is used to develop feasible scenarios of the evolution of competitiveness of the European steel industry and carbon leakage for alternative instrument mixes and alternative levels of global participation in climate change policies.

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This report uses a dynamic CGE model, to assess the rate of carbon leakage and the adverse impacts on competitiveness in a number of scenarios over the period 2010‐2050. The report is structured as follows: Chapter 3 reviews the economic modelling literature on anti‐leakage policy instruments. Chapter 4 presents the CGE model and describes the main assumptions and data. Chapter 5 describes the baseline and the policy scenarios. Chapter 6 reports the simulation results. Chapter 7 presents the assessment of the anti‐leakage policy options in terms of the CECILIA2050’s optimality criteria.

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This study addresses the issue of carbon leakage and international competitiveness of the European energy‐intensive industries, with a focus on the European steel industry. The study shows several ways in which the European steel sector can be incentivised and supported to improve its energy and material consumption, reduce dependency on fossil fuels technologies and invest in innovative technologies and products which in the long term, would reduce carbon costs as part of the production costs and improve international competitiveness.

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This report examines the implications of a range of possible agreements for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from industrial and terrestrial sources in terms of the likely future temperature increase, mitigation costs by region and a number of other important indicators. The agreements that are considered range from the case where the EU goes alone for a target reduction of 80% by 2050, to the case in which most of the countries of the world commit themselves to this reduction target.

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Because the measures and policies of third countries can affect the optimality of the EU’s climate policy framework, this report applies a global perspective when considering the direction climate policies might take through 2050. The report primarily incorporates those 11 non-EU countries into the analysis, which are among the biggest economies and largest emitters in the world and whose climate change policies matter most.

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