Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Europe for 2050

Discussion of Results from the ETM-­UCL Model, EXIOBASE Input-­‐Output Model and the GINFORS Model

As part of the CECILIA2050 project, three modelling approaches were employed to determine the pathways and implications of the ambitious emission reductions in the European Union, with two of the approaches linking developments in the EU with the rest of the world. This report draws together the key results from each of these broadly co-ordinated modelling exercises, compares and discusses key similarities and differences and draws out implications for the development of a low-­carbon economy in the EU up until the year 2050.

Section 2 provides a description of the three modelling approaches, whilst Section 3 details the scenarios produced for assessment under each approach. Section 4 then compares the approaches and scenarios, to highlight key similarities and differences. Section 5 presents the key results of the key scenario, beginning with high-­level results surrounding CO2 emissions, energy consumption, carbon prices and economic impacts, before describing and comparing sector-­level results and implications. Section 6 concludes.

A full description of each modelling approach, scenario design and consequential results is presented in further detail in three dedicated reports. Each publication can be found on the CECILIA2050 project website:

Attachment: 

Citation: 

Drummond, Paul. 2014. Scenarios for a Low-­Carbon Europe for 2050: Discussion of Results from the ETM-­UCL Model, EXIOBASE Input-­Output Model and the GINFORS Model. CECILIA2050 WP3 Deliverable 3.4. London: University College London.

Funding: 

European Commission

Authors: 

Paul Drummond, University College London

Year of publication: 

2015

Number of pages: 

39

Table of contents: 

 

Executive summary

4

1

Introduction

7

2

Modelling Approaches

8

2.1.1

European TIMES Model (ETM-UCL)

8

2.1.2

Input-Output Model

9

2.1.3

GINFORS Model

9

3

Scenario Designs

10

3.1

ETM-UCL Scenarios

10

3.2

Input-Output Scenarios

13

3.3

GINFORS Scenarios

14

4

Key Similarities and Differences between Modelling Approaches and Scenario Designs

15

5

Comparaison and Discussion of Key Results

17

5.1

Power Sector

23

5.2

Industry Sector

26

5.3

Transport Sector

27

5.4

Buildings Sector

30

5.5

Agriculture Sector

32

6

Conclusions

32

7

Reference

37