Scenarios for international climate policy instruments

Because the measures and policies of third countries can affect the optimality of the EU’s climate policy framework, this report applies a global perspective when considering the direction climate policies might take through 2050. The report primarily incorporates those 11 non-EU countries into the analysis, which are among the biggest economies and largest emitters in the world and whose climate change policies matter most. The climate policy instruments that are considered within this report include not only carbon markets but also other instruments which aim at mitigating climate change. With regard to the latter, the report includes national energy policy instruments, such as quotas for renewable energies and fossil fuel subsidies, and measures to reduce international transport emissions. After a detailed description of the state of play of these different policy instruments, four policy scenarios through 2050 are developed for each type of instrument. The policy scenarios differ with regard to the level of ambition, policy convergence, and international cooperation. The scenarios developed within this report will form the basis for future macro-economic simulations of the CECILIA2050 research project.

Attachment: 

Citation: 

Zelljadt, Elizabeth, 2014. Scenarios for international climate policy instruments. WP5 Deliverable 5.1. Berlin, Ecologic Institute.

Funding: 

European Commission

Authors: 

Elizabeth Zelljadt, Ecologic Institute

Year of publication: 

2014

Number of pages: 

48

Table of contents: 

1

Introduction

6

1.1

About this report

6

1.2

Deviation from description of work

6

2

Scenario creation

8

2.1

Countries involved

9

2.2

Instruments analysed

9

3.2.1

Carbon pricing

10

3.2.2

Energy policies at the national level

10

3.3.3

Climate measures in global sectors 11

11

2.3

Conceptual methodology

11

2.3.1

Criteria

12

2.3.2

Scenario “landscape”

14

3

The Scenarios

17

3.1

Countries and Instruments: current state of play

19

3.1.1

Carbon pricing state of play

21

 

Carbon markets

22

 

Carbon taxes

23

 

New market mechanisms

25

3.1.2

Domestic energy policies state of play

26

 

Renewable energy quotas

26

 

Fossil fuel subsidies

28

3.1.3

GHGs from global transport state of play

29

3.2

Evolution through 2050 by instrument type for each scenario

30

3.2.1

Carbon pricing

30

3.2.1.1

Carbon pricing Status quo

30

3.2.1.2

Carbon pricing global deal path

31

3.2.1.3

Carbon pricing middle-of-the-road

32

3.2.1.4

Carbon pricing non-global-deal path

33

3.2.2

Domestic policies

34

3.2.2.1

Domestic policies status quo

34

3.2.2.2

Domestic policies global deal

35

3.2.2.3

Domestic policies middle-of-the-road

35

3.2.2.4

Domestic policies non-global-deal

35

3.2.3

Global sectors

36

3.2.3.1

Global sectors status quo

36

3.2.3.2

Global sectors global deal scenario

37

3.2.3.3

Global sectors middle-of-the-road

37

3.2.3.4

Global sectors non-global-deal

38

4

Conclusion

39

5

References

41